金吾财讯 | 光大证券研究指，受地缘政治冲突、原材料供给扰动等因素影响，年初以来化工品价格呈现“中枢抬升、波动放大”的特征。根据Wind数据，中国化工产品价格指数 (CCPI) 于 2026 年 7 月 23 日收于4800 点，周环比上涨 1.1%，较一个月前上涨 3.1%，较年初上涨 21.8%，同比上涨 18.4%。然而，价格指数运行路径并不平滑。指数自年初的 3930 点低位快速上行，于 4 月 7 日触及年内高点 5515 点，随后单边回落至 7 月 3 日的 4430 点，区间最大回撤达 19.7%，此后再度出现反弹。价格指数波动的扩大，反映当前价格更多由供给端与外部事件驱动，而非需求侧的稳态变化。在此情形下，产业链利润更多向具备资源禀赋的环节集中：拥有充足上游资源储备的头部企业，一方面可通过内部资源自给平抑原材料价格的剧烈波动，稳定单位成本；另一方面在价格上行阶段能够更充分地享受资源端的价格弹性，从而在周期波动中实现相对更优、也更稳定的盈利水平。建议优先关注上游磷、钾等领域资源保有量较为充足、一体化程度较高的头部企业。
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