【中信证券:二次原油冲击不改8月行情修复趋势】中信证券发布研报称,此轮中东原油冲击不再是第一轮的小号重演,而是缓冲耗尽后的二次冲击。两轮油价冲击过程中,市场最拥挤的交易结构完全不同,意味着市场不会简单复制二季度的行情运行模式。唯一相对确定的是中东战争走向越发难以预测,矛盾长期化的风险在提高,意味着市场短期不可避免地需要经历降低风偏的过程。不过从量价和情绪指标来看,负面的事件和叙事已经反映到了短期比较极端的跌幅当中,降风偏的过程已经接近尾声,8月市场出现普遍轮动修复的概率很高。依旧看好三个维度的收敛:1)Al链上游硬件和涨价品种相对下游平台型企业超额收益的收敛;2)国内非AI工业股相对海外对标的公司的折价修复;3)科技与非科技的收敛。
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