消息面上，摩根士丹利最新测算显示，AI推理时代生成式AI投资的增量资本回报率（ROIC）可达25%至50%，显著高于市场预期，回应了市场对AI巨额资本支出“难回本”的质疑。机构测算显示 2025 至 2028 年头部云厂商总算力将翻两番至 120 吉瓦，行业资本开支总额超 1.4 万亿美元，资金主要用于各类大模型训练与推理业务。三套测算模型分别设置价格、算力利用率、推理算力占比等变量做情景推演，同时提示短期行业利润率低于测算基准，源于新一代 GPU 产能爬坡、传统云业务与 AI 业务混合分摊成本，长期随着高端推理业务占比提升盈利水平将修复。研报认为 GPU 租赁定价、token 单价、算力吞吐效率是决定各赛道盈利的核心变量，自建算力的模型 API 业务盈利弹性最高，第三方算力模式盈利受算力租赁成本约束。可观的长期回报会持续吸引行业新参与者与开源方案入局，算力基础设施稀缺性进一步提升，报告认为，随着推理需求爆发，亚马逊、谷歌、微软及Meta等规模化玩家将持续受益。
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