Hold interest rates but ‘sound hawkish’, City AM Shadow MPC tells Bank of England

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City AM's Shadow MPC said the Bank of England should hold interest rates. The Bank of England should hold interest rates on Thursday, City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has said, after a ...

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The Bank of England should hold interest rates on Thursday, City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has said, after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/hold-interest-rates-but-sound-hawkish-city-am-shadow-mpc-tells-bank-of-england/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cityam_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hold interest rates but ‘sound hawkish’, City AM Shadow MPC tells Bank of England</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHold interest rates but ‘sound hawkish’, City AM Shadow MPC tells Bank of England\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-28 22:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/hold-interest-rates-but-sound-hawkish-city-am-shadow-mpc-tells-bank-of-england/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>City AM's Shadow MPC said the Bank of England should hold interest rates. The Bank of England should hold interest rates on Thursday, City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has said, after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/hold-interest-rates-but-sound-hawkish-city-am-shadow-mpc-tells-bank-of-england/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ILCV","symbol_name":"iShares Morningstar Value ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/hold-interest-rates-but-sound-hawkish-city-am-shadow-mpc-tells-bank-of-england/","article_id":"2654888232","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/bailey-boe-copy-6-1-e1785240821921.jpg?w=824&h=463&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/hold-interest-rates-but-sound-hawkish-city-am-shadow-mpc-tells-bank-of-england/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654888232","pubTimestamp":1785247750,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The Brent Crude oil price has dropped to around $80 per barrel this week as hostilities between the US and Iran cooled, having briefly hit $100 last week when an Iran-backed militia attacked Saudi Arabian ships.Stay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.“Alongside a firmer stance against inflation, communication must be more consistent about the need to act with vigilance against inflationary impulses and not to look for excuses to cut rates,” Chadha said.The Bank of England’s interest rates decision on Thursday is set to be fraught with difficulties. Economists at the central bank will have to make forecast judg","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ILCV":"iShares Morningstar Value ETF","EQRR":"ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF","UCC":"ProShares Ultra Consumer Discretionary","LRCY":"IncomeShares Lam Research LRCX Options ETP","CGDV":"Capital Group Dividend Value ETF","LGH":"HCM Defender 500 Index ETF","FLV":"American Century Focused Large Cap Value ETF","MODL":"VictoryShares WestEnd US Sector ETF","CGUS":"Capital Group Core Equity ETF","ARP":"PMV ADAPTIVE RISK PARITY ETF","FT":"富兰克林通用信托","DFUV":"DIMENSIONAL US MARKETWIDE VALUE ETF","IJK":"标普中型成长股400指数ETF-iShares","TACN":"T. 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The Bank of England should hold interest rates on Thursday, City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has said, after a string of economic data prints showed the threat of spiralling inflation had eased.The Shadow MPC – a group of economists compiled by City AM – said a series of economic data releases had suggested rate-setters have more breathing room on inflation and interest rates should be left at 3.75 per cent. Economists take part in the Shadow MPC independently of their organisations.Analysts across City banks and investment companies have broadly agreed that UK monetary policy depends on the flow of oil and gas out of the Gulf region and whether workers react to a spike in prices by bargaining for higher wages, an inflationary risk referred to as “second round effects”.\n\nThe Brent Crude oil price has dropped to around $80 per barrel this week as hostilities between the US and Iran cooled, having briefly hit $100 last week when an Iran-backed militia attacked Saudi Arabian ships.  \n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFigures published by the Office for National Statistics have calmed nerves about interest rate hikes. It revealed that inflation dropped to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, though price growth is set to edge up again as energy prices are reset. Job vacancies also fell, easing concerns about a wage-price spiral, while GDP expanded by just 0.1 per cent in May 2026, potentially reflecting tamed demand effects.Markets have, however, priced in at least two interest rate hikes to take place in the medium term, as per two-year gilt yields on Tuesday afternoon. \n\n‘Wait and see mode’ allows interest rate holdSome members of the Shadow MPC urged the Bank of England to wait for further data justifying an interest rate hike. “Broad money growth remains too weak to fuel a sustained rise in inflation, while higher market interest rates are already tightening financial conditions,” the economist Julian Jessop said.PGIM Fixed Income economist Katharine Neiss also said that lower headline inflation and slow private sector pay growth allowed the Bank to remain in “wait and see mode”.One out of nine members, Professor Jagjit Chadha, who replaced Office for Budget Responsibility chair-select Jonathan Haskel in the Shadow MPC, favoured an interest rate hike due to the country’s struggles in getting inflation to stick to two per cent over recent years. \n\n“Alongside a firmer stance against inflation, communication must be more consistent about the need to act with vigilance against inflationary impulses and not to look for excuses to cut rates,” Chadha said. The Bank of England’s interest rates decision on Thursday is set to be fraught with difficulties. Economists at the central bank will have to make forecast judgment calls on growth, inflation and unemployment. Most City banks expect two members to vote for an interest rate hike again – Huw Pill and Megan Greene – and the rest of the MPC to call for a hold. Other potential hawks include Catherine Mann and Clare Lombardelli, the deputy governor of the Bank. \n\n\nHow City AM’s Shadow MPC votedAnna Leach – Institute of Directors, chief economistVote: HoldWhat has influenced your decision? “We seem no closer to a sustainable end to the conflict in the Middle East, which means oil and gas prices are once more on the ascent and risks have sharpened. But most other developments give the Bank of England more breathing space on rates. “Financial conditions have already tightened. The UK’s 10-year borrowing costs are 14 per cent higher than when the Office for Budget Responsibility locked down its Spring forecast. The UK’s labour market remains pretty soft as private sector wage growth has dipped below three per cent for the first time since 2020. “And business leaders report that uncertainty continues to slow decision-making, particularly when it comes to investment, with areas of discretionary spend under pressure, and hiring on hold.”Ben Ramanauskas – EconomistVote: HoldWhat has influenced your decision? “Hold for now but resume cutting as soon as possible. While inflation remains above target, the balance of risks does not justify tightening.“This remains a supply-side story with little evidence of meaningful second-round effects: wage growth has not accelerated and inflation expectations have remained broadly anchored. “Money supply growth is running within normal historical ranges. If anything, this reinforces the reading that current inflation reflects a transitory shock working its way through the price level rather than a structural change in the inflation trend.“Labour market slack should be a growing concern. It’s primarily driven by the increase to the minimum wage, the national insurance hike, and the Employment Rights Act. Roughly one million young people are not in employment, education, or training and this does not look likely to improve anytime soon. A hike now would exacerbate this and cause lasting damage to the economy.”Jack Meaning – Barclays chief UK economistVote: HoldWhat has influenced your decision? “Inflation data has continued to fall. While inflation will clearly rise in the second half of this year, there is little that raising rates today can do to change that. The key question for policy is how much of this rise will become entrenched.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}