机构:英国央行或威胁收紧政策,但未来降息的可能性似乎更大

格隆汇
Jul 30
Berenberg分析师Andrew Wishart表示,英国央行周四应会将关键利率维持在3.75%不变,不过可能会警告称,如果能源价格大幅上涨或出现第二轮通胀效应,就有可能加息。然而,这种警告并不意味着加息的可能性很大。单是这种威胁,加上油价上涨,就足以推高利率预期和房贷借贷成本,从而降低通胀风险。英国央行实际上可能会在12月恢复降息,然后在2027年中期将政策利率降至3.0%。工资和服务通胀正呈下降趋势,而美国总统特朗普将希望在步入中期选举之际避免油价上涨。

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