The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0937 ET - Markets are pricing in about a 64% chance the Fed will hold rates steady later today, but investors will be watching closely for any signals from Chairman Kevin Warsh on the path of monetary policy ahead. After cooler-than-expected June inflation data, volatile energy prices tied to tensions in the Middle East have re-escalated concerns about resurgent inflation. Warsh has indicated that the Fed will restore price stability and the central bank has no tolerance for inflation above its target. The question is whether the committee will act soon on these inflationary pressures or wait for more evidence that inflation is cooling. (jessica.coacci@wsj.co)

0934 ET - Procter & Gamble is expecting to take a $1 billion hit to earnings this year due to high gas prices. The projection is based on an estimate that the Brent crude oil price will be $90 a barrel, given the ongoing war with Iran, executives tell analysts on a call. Along with high fuel costs, P&G says it is also dealing with freight and trucking surcharges, supplier inflation and extra non-commodity costs tied to the conflict. P&G estimates EPS will fall 5% or more year-over-year in F1Q, with the majority of cost impacts happening in the first half of its new fiscal year. Procter & Gamble falls 4% in early trading.(katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

0832 ET - Oil futures are back on the rise as the U.S. and Iran resume military strikes following a pause, again dimming hopes for a negotiated solution to the conflict. "Prolonging this war will deepen damage to vital oil facilities, whether in the Gulf states or in Iran, which cannot be reversed through negotiations and could require months or even years to repair," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. That could keep oil prices relatively high for an long period, he adds. "Extreme and unlikely scenarios could become reality as the war's timeframe extends." WTI is up 6.6% at $84.51 a barrel and Brent is 6.9% higher at $89.93. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0615 ET - Geopolitical concerns are the main drivers of U.K. government bond yields, or gilt yields, rather than domestic worries, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. Investors are paying attention to the government's economic plans and the ways these plans will be funded. Markets, however, "seem prepared to give the new government the benefit of the doubt, provided fiscal discipline holds," he says. This year's budget will be key for investors as it will likely to provide more details on the government's economic measures and the source of funding, Anne says. Ten-year gilt yields rise 2.3 basis points to last trade at 4.980%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0611 ET - Decent growth in U.K. consumer credit and a rebound in mortgage approvals in June suggests households haven't become overly cautious due to the Iran war, RSM U.K.'s Thomas Pugh says in a note. This points to second-quarter growth holding up, he says. Households' bank deposits increased by more than the six-month average, while the rise in approvals to 58,200 suggests the housing market is picking up after May's drop, he says. "The resilience [in the housing market] seen so far suggests fundamental demand remains solid for now." However, mortgage rates have now reset higher, inflation is set to rise, and survey measures of house prices and activity are losing momentum, signaling that house-price growth will slow, Pugh says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0603 ET - The GBP7.7 billion increase in U.K. net mortgage lending in June was the biggest since March 2025, but it isn't a sign that the housing market is back on its feet, Capital Economics' Paul Dales says in a note. "Instead, it probably reflects the hump of completions after people locked in mortgage rates before the jump after the Iran war started at the end of February," he says. Mortgage approvals only partially reversed the drop in May, rising to 58,2000 from 56,565, well down from 65,207 in April. "As a result, transactions and net mortgage lending will be more subdued in the coming months," Dales says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0524 ET - The Bank of England should leave its key interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, although it could warn of a possible hike if energy prices rise significantly or second-round inflationary effects surface, Berenberg's Andrew Wishart says in a note. That doesn't mean a hike is likely, however. The threat alone, along with higher oil prices, would be sufficient to increase interest-rate expectations and mortgage borrowing costs, thus reducing inflation risk, he says. Instead, Wishart says the BOE could actually resume rate cuts in December, then lower the policy rate to 3.0% in mid-2027. Wage and services inflation is trending lower, while President Trump will want to avoid higher oil prices into the midterm elections, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0514 ET - The dollar is likely to maintain its strength following the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision later in the day and upcoming U.S. data, Union Bancaire Privée's Peter Kinsella says in a note. The Fed should keep rates steady but there is a chance of a more explicit vote split, with Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan favoring a rate rise, he says. On Thursday, U.S. second quarter economic data could show growth of 2.1% and PCE inflation data could show a modest 0.1% month-on-month decline in June, although these shouldn't be overly market moving, he says. "Overall, there is nothing that we can see which should lead to any imminent weakening in the dollar in the near term." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0500 ET - Legrand raising its guidance is the standout positive, Bernstein analysts say in a research note. The French infrastructure manufacturer raised its 2026 like-for-like growth guidance by 450 basis points to a range between 8% and 10%. Coupled with the upgraded scope guidance, the implied full-year sales now sit 1% ahead of consensus estimates, the analysts say. Nevertheless, Legrand's adjusted operating profit margins missed expectations, while Europe disappointed on margins and growth, the analysts add. Overall, "we see the strong top line performance and confident guide as a near-term tonic for the shares," they add. Shares trade 0.5% lower at 128.45 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0433 ET - The resumption of military strikes in the Iran war is a reminder to remain cautious on the euro versus the dollar, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. For the euro to secure a sustained rise above $1.15 this would require markets to scale back U.S. interest-rate rise expectations through data or Federal Reserve communications, along with stabilizing risk sentiment, he says. However, if markets are right to maintain a broadly optimistic view on a de-escalation in the conflict, there is a good chance the euro has already bottomed out against the dollar, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1399 after reaching a one-month low of $1.1353 on Tuesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0406 ET - Italian energy major Eni's strong operational performance continues, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes. Its second-quarter results are relatively strong, the analyst says after the company posted a 12% beat to net income consensus expectations. Oil and gas production is 3% above market views while the unit's earnings are broadly in line, he writes. Eni's global gas & LNG, Enilive and Plenitude divisions all come in ahead of consensus, he says. Some of this is offset by higher corporate charges, he adds. Shares rise 4.6% to 23.02 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0341 ET - Asian equities are seeing a rotation away from tech, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a research note. SK Hynix's shares ended 9.6% lower despite reporting stellar earnings, sending the Kospi 6.0% lower. Taiwan and Japan, the other two markets with heavy semiconductor exposure, fell 3.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Chip makers have "moved from market darlings to volatility transmitters over the past month," as Asian leadership has shifted toward consumer discretionary, financials, and energy, Munnelly says. While the AI story hasn't disappeared, the market's tolerance for disappointment has collapsed, he says.