TradingKey - On Friday (July 31) Eastern Time, the three major US stock index futures rose collectively in pre-market trading, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading the gains. Amazon ( AMZN) earnings report reinforced market confidence in AI cloud demand and tech stock earnings resilience, driving a rebound in chip stocks and AI infrastructure stocks; however, Apple ( AAPL) fell sharply after its earnings report, while the rising US dollar and US Treasury yields still limited the further expansion of market risk appetite.

As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.51%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1%.

Performance of the three major US stock index futures, Source: Investing

In terms of commodities, international oil prices rose slightly, WTI ( USOIL) crude oil rose about 1% to trade around $84.9; Brent crude rose about 1.6% to trade around $88.3. The situation in the Middle East still keeps the energy supply risk premium at a high level. Gold ( XAUUSD) fell over 1%, pulling back to around $4,050, while the US Dollar Index rose to around 100.3 and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.67%, weakening gold's short-term appeal.

In terms of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin ( BTC) traded near $63,800, down about 1.3% on the day. Despite the pre-market strength in US tech stocks, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East kept crypto market trading cautious.

Market Movers

Amazon rose over 12% premarket. The company's second-quarter revenue increased by 20% year-over-year to $200.6 billion, and AWS revenue grew by 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth in 18 quarters. Meanwhile, the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan from $200 billion to $220 billion, primarily driven by rising costs for AI infrastructure and memory chips. The market believes that AWS's strong growth has eased investor concerns over the return cycle of AI capital expenditures.

Apple fell over 7% premarket. The company's third-fiscal-quarter revenue was $109.4 billion and earnings per share were $2.02, both exceeding market expectations; however, the company expects September-quarter revenue growth of 9% to 11%, falling below the market expectation of 12.1%. Apple's management mentioned foreign exchange headwinds and supply chain constraints, and the market is concerned that shortages of advanced chips, memory, and other components could impact the subsequent supply of iPhones, Macs, and iPads.

Semiconductor stocks gained across the board. Micron Technology ( MU) rose over 4% premarket, Intel ( INTC) rose over 5%, AMD ( AMD) rose over 4%, Nvidia ( NVDA) rose over 1%. Amazon's upward revision of its capital expenditures and AWS's accelerated growth reinforced the market's pricing of demand for AI computing power, memory chips, and servers.

Coinbase ( COIN) fell about 4% premarket. The company recorded a loss of $1.36 per share for the second quarter, and revenue fell 19% year-over-year to $1.22 billion, missing market expectations. A decline in crypto asset trading volume dragged down transaction revenue, and the market continues to monitor whether its subscription services, stablecoin revenue, and progress in US crypto regulation can hedge against transaction cycle volatility.

Market News

U.S. PCE inflation cooled in June, and second-quarter GDP fell short of expectations. The U.S. PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year in June, down from 4.1% in May; the core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year, below the previous reading of 3.4%. U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, missing market expectations, as consumer spending rose 3.2% and an increase in imports dragged on GDP.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, as yen volatility drew market attention. The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 1.00%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank would be prepared to raise rates further if inflation risks rise. The yen had earlier rebounded sharply on suspected intervention before giving up some of its gains, with USD/JPY returning to around 160.

South Korean stocks staged a record rebound, repairing sentiment for Asian chip stocks. South Korea's KOSPI index surged more than 17% at one point on Friday, marking its largest single-day gain on record, as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rebounded sharply. The performance of Amazon and Microsoft's cloud businesses helped lift global AI trading sentiment.

U.S. auto safety regulators are investigating Tesla ( TSLA) 1.2 million vehicles. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it has opened a preliminary investigation into suspension failure issues in some Tesla models.

Major Data and Events Preview

At 8:30 AM ET on July 31, the US released the second-quarter Employment Cost Index, with the market expecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8%, compared with the previous reading of 0.9%.

At 9:45 AM ET on July 31, the US released the July Chicago PMI, with the market expecting 56.0, compared with the previous reading of 56.7.

At 10:00 AM ET on July 31, the US released the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July, with the market expecting 54.4, compared with the previous reading of 49.5.

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