茶饮股持续上扬 沪上阿姨(02589)涨4.26% 机构料28年中国现制茶饮市场规模达5732亿元

金吾财讯
Jul 29

金吾财讯 | 港股茶饮股持续上扬,截至发稿,沪上阿姨(02589)涨4.26%,蜜雪集团(02097)涨3.95%,奈雪的茶(02150)涨2.86%,茶百道(02555)涨2.60%,古茗(01364)涨2.26%。消息面上,近日中金公司发布研报称,过去十年茶饮行业经历了较长周期演变,当前现制茶饮在水分摄入中渗透率提升仍在延续,外卖大战扰动下行业将以精细化运营为重,不改集中度提升和强者恒强格局。该机构援引灼识咨询数据表示,2023年中国现制饮品市场规模合计为5,175亿元,对应2018-23年复合增速达22.5%。其中,2023年中国现制茶饮市场规模合计为2,585亿元,对应2018-23年复合增速达15.3%。未来将以13.8%的复合增速继续增长,预计2028年市场规模可达5,732亿元。中金公司若认为,当前“渠道型品牌”更易胜出(以高频/稳定出品及质价比为核心,适配消费理性和线上外卖渗透率较高的大环境),“心智型品牌”更难但并非毫无机会;先发优势&后发创新均有机会。该机构还提到,茶饮、咖啡、冰激淋等单品在门店层面有融合化趋势,企业围绕消费者经营全时段和全生命周期需求,是精细化运营时代下更好的选择。分品类看,茶咖融合已进入规模化铺设阶段,10-15元是核心竞争价格带(咖啡品牌延展茶饮更易成功,而茶饮品牌延展咖啡对于增量投入和消费者习惯培养要求更高、但部分头部品牌亦取得一定突破),冰激淋、早餐等更多品类在测试中。

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