金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研究指，二季度预定利率研究值发布，年内预计不会有预定利率切换带来的“炒停售”，储蓄险竞争优势基本盘仍在，长期仍看好居民庞大的稳健投资需求驱动新单保费较快增长。2023-2025年期间每年均经历一轮预定利率的下调，而预定利率正式调整前居民为了买到预定利率相对更高的保单会产生阶段性销售高峰，即“炒停售”现象。按照监管规则，只有预定利率最高值与研究值的差值连续两季度达25bp才会触发下调，而最近两个季度研究值均未满足此条件，即使今年后两个季度研究值均满足条件，预定利率预计也会在2027年才会调整，因此预计年内不会有预定利率切换带来的“炒停售”，同期较高基数下三季度新单增速或存在一定压力。但短期销售节奏波动不影响储蓄险整体竞争优势，后资管新规时代储蓄险产品作为少数可提供长期保证收益的金融产品，有望持续承接居民庞大的稳健投资需求，而分红险转型则通过“保底+浮动”的收益模式较好兼顾居民对“向下有保底、向上有弹性”的投资需求和保险公司降低刚性负债成本、提升低利率环境下穿越周期经营能力的需求。
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