【券商聚焦】交银国际维持九毛九(09922)中性评级 指太二修复延续 但盈利改善节奏偏缓

金吾财讯
Jul 30

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,预计九毛九(09922)2026上半年收入仍将同比降高单位数,主要受到门店数量收缩影响(门店总数年初至今下降中单位数);但受益于太二门店模型调改见效,以及低效门店退出后经营亏损减少,归母净利润有望同比小幅改善。总体来看,行业需求仍未出现明显复苏信号,该机构更新了门店数量预测,并考虑到品牌调改及零售业务进展,该机构下调2026-28年盈利预测3-12%,并下调目标价至1.30港元,维持中性评级。该机构提到,太二2季度中国内地同店销售同比增12.0%,较1季度的10.9%进一步改善,翻台率连续两个季度维持在3.5次/天,经营稳健。随着门店调改的逐步推进,太二中国内地门店利润率有望进一步修复。然而,太二海外业务仍承压。公司已开始针对不同海外市场推进本地化调改,但该机构认为相关改善效果仍需时间验证。怂火锅整体表现弱于该机构之前的预期,其2季度同店销售同比下降26.1%,较1季度同比19.9%的降幅进一步扩大,翻台率亦由2.1次降至1.9次。基于此,该机构大幅下调了怂火锅2026-28年预测。九毛九新模型正在积极探索和落地过程中,目前已落地6家新模型门店,后续仍将以打磨和复制新模型为主。该机构预计今年外销收入仍有增长空间,增量主要来自新渠道的拓展和与北美Costco的合作,公司预计相关收入更多将在下半年及2027年体现。

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