Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】中国银河：7月新能源渗透率有望续创新高

金吾财讯
Jul 30

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券研究指，7月上中旬，乘用车终端需求延续淡季偏弱态势，1-19日零售77.0万辆，同比-16%、环比上月同期-4%，累计零售同比-20%，整体市场持续处于低位运行状态，夏季高温淡季效应凸显，终端成交节奏整体平缓；1-19日批发74.7万辆，同比-17%、环比上月同期-14%，车企生产出货节奏有所收缩，终端淡季叠加前期库存调节，厂商进货与交付力度阶段性放缓。结构上新能源韧性持续凸显，上半月新能源批发、零售渗透率分别达68.1%、63%。7月终端零售处于传统淡季，整体消费需求偏弱，世界杯叠加盛夏高温天气导致线下到店客流锐减，无节假日消费加持，市场自然购车需求低迷，消费者观望情绪浓厚，家庭换购周期拉长，新车刚需释放不足。同时上半年持续的终端价格竞争一定程度透支市场，车企、经销商优惠力度常态化，消费者持币待购心态加剧，进一步压制终端成交表现。展望后市，全国置换补贴政策持续落地，为中端车型零售提供增量支撑，叠加新能源新国标实施，为厂商批发提供结构性增量。7月新能源渗透率有望续创新高，新能源车型凭借产品迭代、政策红利及性价比优势，市场韧性显著优于燃油车，持续对冲燃油车零售大幅下滑的缺口，缓解终端市场整体下行压力。下半年理想新款L6、i9、小米澎程N。

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