【券商聚焦】长江证券维持滔搏(06110)买入评级 指耐克线上终止短期承压

金吾财讯
Jul 29

金吾财讯 | 长江证券发布研报指,滔搏(06110)及宝胜国际(03813)相继公告,收到耐克(NKE.US)正式通知,其中国内地耐克产品线上平台销售将于2027年1月1日起全面终止。该行指出,耐克产品线上平台销售收入分别占滔搏FY2026总收入及宝胜国际2025年总收入的22%及15%,线上业务终止预计短期将对公司经营造成重大负面影响。但中长期看,此举有望助推打造更强大、更可持续的零售市场生态,滔搏及宝胜国际也将在线下销售渠道与耐克保持紧密合作。长江证券认为,耐克收回中国内地线上经销权,短期有利于本土品牌及海外龙头品牌持续获取中国市场份额,耐克库存清理及折扣控制后也有望优化中国运动市场竞争格局。耐克试图通过渠道重塑重新夺回线上定价权和品牌力,但其产品力及溢价能力近年趋于下行,且过去削减批发合作伙伴也为竞争对手腾出市场空间,因此后续仍需关注耐克产品更新情况及经销商线下渠道运营表现。基于此,该行下调滔搏全年业绩预期,预计公司FY2027-FY2029实现归母净利润9.68亿、6.08亿及6.75亿元人民币,对应市盈率分别为7倍、11倍及10倍。在100%分红预期下,FY2027股息率预计达14%以上,维持“买入”评级。风险方面,该行提示零售恢复、多品牌整合及海外品牌库存去化不及预期。

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