The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1022 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.5%, seemingly bouncing back after a streak of selling of the most-active contract. But livestock traders are not sure the rally can last. "The downtrend may continue and rallies are likely to be selling opportunities," says the Hightower Report in a note. Because of the measured way that the USDA plans to reopen the U.S.-Mexico border to fed cattle imports from Mexico, the impact of that on prices has likely softened as a flood of imports is not expected at once. Lean hogs are up 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0954 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower with the market continuing to shrug at summer heat while focusing on strong production, abundant inventories and soft LNG feedgas. High renewable power generation is also seen limiting the amount of gas that would be used to meet air conditioning demand, despite temperatures reaching triple digits in Texas and elsewhere. "Where temperatures are comfortable is across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "However, even with hot weather patterns, power burns have been under-performing." Nymex natural gas is down 1.4% at $2.728/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0936 ET - Wheat exports traveling out of Russia are under pressure thanks to closures of major shipping lanes in the Sea of Azov. Market-watchers are not expecting the wartime situation in the Black Sea to change much in the short term, with agricultural research firm SovEcon projecting that Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year to fall by 1.9 million metric tons to 44.6 million tons. With no signs of the Russia-Ukraine war subsiding, the shipping lane closures look to stay in place. "A return to normality for wheat exports from the Black Sea region is therefore not on the cards for the time being," says Commerzbank in a note. CBOT wheat falls 0.8% pre-market, while corn is up 0.3% and soybeans fall 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0902 ET - CBOT grain futures continue to take their cue from crude this week, with both sliding as optimism builds for a diplomatic solution to end the U.S.-Iran conflict. Because row crops like corn and soybeans are used as feedstock for renewable fuels, they're exposed to crude oil price moves, making today's 2% fall in oil futures a pressure point. "Trump says the U.S. and Iran are having good talks and optimism towards a peace deal being worked out has increased," say analysts with AgMarket.net in a note. CBOT soybeans are down 0.4% premarket, and wheat falls 0.8%, while corn remains up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0849 ET - The USDA says 63% of U.S. corn is in good-or-excellent condition, down 5 points from the prior week. Soybeans are also 63% good-or-excellent, down 3 points from last week. Spring wheat is assessed at 53% good-or-excellent, which is unchanged from last week. Lower quality ratings were expected this week as confirmation that heat stress is affecting crops, but rainfall is expected to ease that stress this week, says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. CBOT soybeans fall 0.4% and wheat is down 0.7%, while corn is up 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0826 ET - Oil futures extend losses to a third session as the U.S. and Iran continue a pause in their attacks while Iran and Oman explore ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a diplomatic off-ramp could keep crude under pressure, although risk premium could be quickly reignited and push prices back above $100, says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. "The Middle East conflict has in fact widened," he says, with Houthis attacking Saudi facilities and shipping in the Red Sea. "Any sustained disruption there could leave a market already running on low inventories with limited room to respond." WTI is down 1.3% at $81.55 a barrel and Brent is down 1.6% at $86.96. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0640 ET - A further selloff in gold prices would be needed for the Swiss franc to remain weak, TD Securities strategists say in a note. Market participants have attributed the franc's weakness to the prospect of the Swiss National Bank keeping rates at 0% while other central banks raise rates. However, the currency also shows a strong correlation to falling gold prices, they say. "As we see limited scope for a prolonged global rate hiking cycle and only modest gold price downside, our foreign exchange forecast has euro-franc staying around 0.93 into year-end." The euro trades flat at 0.9315 francs after reaching a six-month high of 0.9321 earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0618 ET - Palm oil ended lower, tracking weakness in crude oil, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. A lull in fighting between the U.S. and Iran has accelerated diplomacy aimed at a short-term fix for the most contentious issue of the war, he says. Hameed believes this correction will be limited due to strong underlying palm oil fundamentals. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery falls 30 ringgit to 4,643 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0423 ET - Michelin's half-year results show greater resilience than feared, Equita analyst Martino De Ambroggi says in a research note. The French tire maker's operating profit came in line with expectations, while free cash flow improved, the analyst says. Taking into account comments by management on, for example, original equipment trucks rising in North America in the second half of the year, and assuming that the macro environment doesn't deteriorate, Equita adjusts its estimates by improving free cash flow by 200 million euros to around 1.6 billion euros, De Ambroggi says. Shares trade 1.9% lower at 34.27 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0313 ET - Gold prices are under renewed pressure, slipping back below $4,100 an ounce as investors await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh this week. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday has risen to 38% from 31.5% on Monday, although most analysts still expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. Markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike at the September meeting. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause hostilities. In early trading, New York gold futures are down 0.7% to $4,049.30 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0258 ET - Oil prices extend losses as a lull in U.S.-Iran hostilities spurred diplomatic efforts, with Iran and Oman seeking an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The front-month Brent crude contract slides 2.3% to $86.31 a barrel after settling 8.7% lower in the previous session, while WTI falls 2% to $80.93 a barrel. Prices were also weighed down by reports that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal resumed pipeline loading operations following a week-long suspension. Despite the selloff, supply risks remain elevated. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched by Iran-backed militias in Iraq targeting oil facilities. Meanwhile, Persian Gulf oil flows have dropped to 41% of prewar levels, while Red Sea shipments fell by more than 3 million barrels a day over the past week as Saudi Arabia rerouted some exports via the Suez Canal and Russia sharply reduced Red Sea shipments, according to Goldman Sachs. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0153 ET - Michelin's first-half results offered no surprises, but also little to be positive about, and might not be enough to lift its shares after recent outperformance relative to peers, Bernstein analysts say. The French tire maker beat consensus expectations for first-half adjusted earnings by a narrow margin, the analysts say in a research note. It reiterated its forecast of earnings growth this year despite lower expectations for car production, they add. Michelin's shares have outperformed those of peers Continental and Pirelli, and the results might not be enough to trigger a positive market reaction, according to Bernstein. "Our view remains that [full-year] guidance is conservative and consensus is beatable--but the upgrade cycle may need to wait," the analysts say. Michelin shares are up 23% year-to-date.