金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研究认为，资本开支增速快于经营现金流，是2026年AI债务融资扩张的直接原因。无论是公司债、项目融资还是表外合作，本质都是以母公司信用、项目资产和长期合同为支撑，将尚未兑现的AI收入提前资本化，并把全球长期储蓄导向GPU、数据中心和电力资产。因此，本轮AI投资已不只是科技巨头的内部资本开支，而是一轮由企业信用、项目资产和长期资金共同推动的信用扩张。其真正脆弱性不在银行或非银杠杆，而在融资条件能否持续：低成本、高抵押率和快速审批是否还能维持。只要AI需求与现金流路径未被证伪，当前债务扩张更接近超级资本开支周期，而非终极泡沫。
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