东吴证券: 美国消费信贷逾期率近新高并不意味着美国信贷状况全面和持续恶化

智通财经
Aug 02
【东吴证券: 美国消费信贷逾期率近新高并不意味着美国信贷状况全面和持续恶化】疫情危机以来,美国消费信贷严重逾期率持续上行,车贷与信用卡逾期率均接近历史新高附近。我们研究发现,这背后更多是统计口径、信用评级迁徙等技术因素放大了消费信贷逾期率的严重程度;以更为合理的新增逾期率等指标来看,美国居民信贷状况并没有全面和持续恶化。尽管如此,美国消费信贷的结构性风险仍然不可忽视,尤其是车贷、信用卡等消费信贷逾期问题集中于次级借款人、中低收入人群等群体。这意味着,美国经济在迎来全面复苏之前,K 型分化的“下端”仍是需要持续关注的薄弱环节。

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