【专家：日美联合干预日元汇率 下跌趋势或难扭转】中国社会科学院美国问题专家马伟：就效果而言，短期效果会比较显著，但如果从长期角度分析，其效果值得怀疑。今年4月，日本单月就曾用700多亿美元干预汇率，但汇率的反弹只不过是一个月左右的个时间，到了6月就重新回升至160以上。究其原因，根本在于美日之间的利差仍保持较大的水平。日本目前的政策利率只有1%左右，而美国一直维持在3.5%以上。同时，高市政府还在持续的推动财政扩张，推动减税。市场上对于日本的财政纪律和加息的空间一直也持怀疑态度。而7月的议息会议，虽然美联储并没有加息，但市场预期在未来半年内，美国很有可能会再次开启加息进程，美日之间的利差有可能再度扩大至2%以上。从中长期角度分析，日元汇率的下行趋势很难通过两国的联合干预而有根本性的改变。
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