机构:若霍尔木兹海峡维持关闭状态,英国将面临经济衰退风险

智通财经
Aug 03
【机构:若霍尔木兹海峡维持关闭状态,英国将面临经济衰退风险】计师事务所安永分析师周一警告称,如果霍尔木兹海峡在明年年中之前仍未恢复通航,英国经济在2027年可能出现萎缩。基于霍尔木兹海峡将在9月底前恢复通航的假设,安永将英国今年经济增长预测从0.8%小幅上调至0.9%,并预计2027年经济增长1.2%。“如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内恢复通航,我们预计英国将避免更严重的经济下滑;但如果关闭状态持续到2027年,则会推高通胀,并可能导致英国经济明年陷入萎缩,”安永英国首席经济学家Peter Arnold表示。安永预测,如果霍尔木兹海峡一直关闭至2027年初至年中,英国今年经济增速将放缓至0.5%,且2027年经济将萎缩0.2%。

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