法国兴业银行:日本央行9月料不会加息 或继续依赖汇市干预支撑日元

格隆汇
Aug 03
法国兴业银行利率策略师最新报告指出,日本央行预计不会在9月份的政策会议上加息。该行认为,面对日元近期的强势反弹,日本当局将转而继续依靠外汇干预来稳定汇率,而非急于收紧货币政策。尽管近期美日两国自上世纪90年代以来首次协调干预汇市,引发了市场对日本央行将加快加息步伐的普遍猜测,但法国兴业银行策略师斯蒂芬·斯普拉特和崎田玲雄在报告中明确表示,这种预期并不符合历史规律。他们指出,从历史经验来看,日本当局一直将外汇干预视为减缓日本央行收紧货币政策压力的一种手段。基于上述判断,法国兴业银行预计日本央行下一次加息将推迟至10月份,届时加息幅度为25个基点。该行进一步预测,日本的政策利率将在2027年第四季度达到2%的目标水平。

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