Tiger Brokers

铜概念股全线上扬 南方铜业（SCCO）涨逾5% 机构指供应受限背景下铜价仍有上行空间

金吾财讯
Aug 04

金吾财讯 | 美股铜概念股全线上扬，截至发稿，Taseko Mines（TGB）涨8.18%，Hudbay Minerals（HBM）涨6.39%，Ivanhoe Electric（IE）涨6.03%，泰克资源有限公司（TECK）涨5.70%，南方铜业（SCCO）涨5.04%，麦克莫兰铜金（FCX）涨4.83%，Ero Copper（ERO）涨4.75%，必和必拓（BHP）涨4.31%，力拓（RIO）涨3.09%，嘉能可（ADR）（GLNCY）涨2.22%。消息面上，铜矿作为全球AI基建、电力建设等当前诸多热门发展领域的关键性材料，叠加铜矿资源短缺危机，正掀起新一轮铜价上行周期。摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师Amy Gower新近研报披露：铜正在同时流向中国和美国，全球库存趋紧，并推高价格和期限价差。在供应受限背景下，铜价仍有上行空间。研报中，大摩将铜列为当前首选大宗商品品种，维持到2026年四季度LME铜14250美元/吨、COMEX铜6.85美元/磅的目标价。美国年初至今超额进口约33.5万吨铜，年化后相当于全球需求的约2.3%；中国6月精炼铜净进口同比增长10%，洋山铜溢价升至115美元/吨，为2022年以来最高，构成这轮看多逻辑的直接支撑。杰富瑞新近还估计，占全球供应量约五分之一的矿业公司最新季度的全球铜产量同比下降近10%，这增加了未来一年市场出现重大供应缺口的风险。国际能源署也在7月警告，智利和秘鲁等主要铜生产国在产量方面面临越来越多的挑战。

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