8月4日，金价周二在每盎司4050美元上方停留，涨跌幅度不大。GTCFX表示，黄金眼下处于典型的等待阶段：美元没有形成持续趋势，利率预期也尚未给出明确方向。
为什么价格守住关键区域却迟迟没有突破？GTCFX认为，能源成本回落缓解了一部分通胀担忧，但较高的债券收益率仍抬升持有黄金的机会成本，两股力量暂时相互抵消。
盘面上，买方愿意在整数关口附近承接，追涨意愿却较为有限。短线波动收窄并不等于风险消失，反而意味着新的数据一旦明显偏离预期，价格可能迅速扩大振幅。
从观察顺序看，可以先看美元，再看实际利率，最后核对黄金基金的资金流。如果三个指标朝同一方向变化，区间被打破的可信度会更高。
GTCFX分析称，接下来的宏观数据和利率信号将决定黄金能否结束横盘；在此之前，市场更可能围绕现有支撑与阻力反复整理。
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