【券商聚焦】中信证券:7月GGR表现略低于预期 关注世界杯后需求释放

金吾财讯
Aug 04

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,澳门博彩行业在较高可比基数及足球赛事分流的影响,7月行业GGR同比下滑8.4%至202.6亿澳门元,略低于市场预期。2026年1-7月行业GGR同比增长4.4%至1471.6亿澳门元。考虑到世界杯已在7月20日(北京时间)结束,各运营商对于行业表述积极(如根据美高梅2Q26业绩电话会交流:澳门全市场最近一周GGR已接近1Q26水平,公司两家物业的访客量及正常化GGR均已超过1Q26水平),该机构预计8月行业日均行业GGR将达到7.3亿澳门元(vs. 1Q26日均为7.32亿澳门元),全月行业GGR将同比增长2%(当前彭博一致预期中位数为+1.3%,市场预测范围为-2.8%~+6%)。进入下半年,该机构认为行业竞争环境将整体趋于稳定,建议积极关注龙头运营商的潜在股东回报提升,以及内地核心城市房价止跌回稳态势延续、内地消费信心企稳下,行业中场、角子机业务的复苏改善。尽管行业在下半年即将面临较高可比基数(25H2行业GGR同比+14%),但该机构认为澳门博彩竞争环境整体趋于稳定,当前澳门博彩板块整体EV/EBITDA估值(对应2027年)不足9x,行业龙头股息率基本处于6-7%区间,估值优势显著。该机构建议优选能够抢夺市场份额、股东回报有望提升的运营商。

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