Fortescue Bear Sees Much Softer Earnings, Dividends Ahead
Dow Jones
Aug 04
0356 GMT - The outlook for Fortescue's earnings--and, consequently, dividends--has weakened as the iron-ore miner faces structural cost pressures, says Morgan Stanley. Fortescue's FY 2027 C1 cost guidance of US$20.50-US$21.75/wet metric ton is roughly 7.8% above consensus midpoint and 13% above FY 2026's. Fortescue faces longer haul distances, likely increasing absolute diesel consumption, says MS. Iron Bridge also remains a drag on earnings, it says. The bank cuts its EPS estimates by 21% for FY 2027 and 18% for FY 2028. Its dividend forecast drops to 60.6 Australian cents a share in FY 2027--from nearly A$1.13/share in FY 2026--implying a 3.3% yield at a 65% payout. MS cuts its share-price target 9.9% to A$15.55 and reiterates an underweight rating. Shares are at A$17.99.
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