金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研究认为，1）美国可能呈现非农低于预期（5万左右，预期8万）、失业率高于预期（4.3%以上，预期4.2%）的组合。2）看多非农的逻辑集中在：一是，初请失业金人数近期偏低；二是，6月休闲酒店就业在世界杯加持下，异常下降，本月或反弹。但均存疑问。3）该机构表示，对非农谨慎：一是，前期ADP、企业招聘需求有走弱迹象，春季强势未必延续；二是，家庭就业人数大幅下降，企业非农岗位高增，二者分化终将收敛；三是，潜在的下修风险。4）失业率看上行风险，主因劳动参与率或技术性回升，推升失业人数。5）市场方面，偏弱就业，对近期降息交易继续提供配合，利好美债黄金等；但降息交易能走多远，关键还是后续的CPI数据和联储是否会降息，短期波动依然可能较大。
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