【券商聚焦】中信证券:资产配置的波动、空间和赔率不可能三角仍是8月配置的重要主线

金吾财讯
Aug 06

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,过往几年的经验表明,市场共识的形成、价格的快速上涨、波动率的累积和释放以及新主线的切换已经成为常态。7月全球科技股的调整对应着二季度以来全球投资者共识的累积、仓位的集中以及隐含波动率的提升,8月之后大类资产将面临隐含波动率释放后的资产重构。风格切换将是股市中期主题、但过程不会一蹴而就;债市仍建议关注超长债配置价值;大宗商品则可关注有色的相对性价比。国内宏观经济运行整体平稳,节奏有所波动但缺乏显著趋势。前AI产业的边际变化在于企业前期过快增长的资本开支可能放缓,而在全球经济增长放缓的环境下,AI产业的盈利增长相对表现仍然亮眼,经济K型分化的格局也可能延续。尽管当前市场一致预期仍担忧年内加息风险,但从美国基本面表现看,年内不加息才是更好选择。资产配置的波动、空间和赔率不可能三角仍是8月配置的重要主线,资产配置的整体难度仍然不低。全球股市的波动率释放则是8月配置的另一条主线。过往几年的经验表明,在资产配置新环境下,市场共识的形成、价格的快速上涨、波动率的累积和释放以及新主线的切换已经成为常态。该机构预计全球股市在隐含波动率快速累积并开始释放后,可能也难重现二季度以来的持续大幅上涨态势。

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