Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】中国银河：S-REITs实现估值系统性重估仍需基本面增长驱动

金吾财讯
Aug 06

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，美国宏观基本面及美联储政策展望：劳动力市场“供需双弱”（失业率4.2%-4.5%区间）与通胀基本盘降温共同指向加息与降息条件均未成熟。供给端受移民净流出与退休高峰挤压，需求端受消费疲软压制，企业普遍转入“低雇佣、低裁员”的防御模式。双重作用下，劳动力市场缺乏修复弹性，预计下半年失业率将在4.2%-4.5%区间内窄幅震荡上行。

通胀方面，在薪资增速持续放缓、住所租金延续下行以及关税冲击边际消退的三重驱动下，核心通胀中枢趋于回落。同时，原油供需格局的演变虽会带来油价波动，但这仅影响通胀下行的斜率，难以扭转其回落的确定性方向。总的来看，由于加息需看到能源冲击向核心通胀扩散，降息则需通胀明确回落或就业超预期恶化，当前这两组条件均未充分满足，预计维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变。利率平稳仅能形成温和支撑，S-REITs实现估值系统性重估仍需基本面增长驱动。利率中枢维持平稳将从两方面形成利好：一是收窄融资成本波动区间，稳定市场对单位派息（DPU）的盈利预期；二是巩固板块相对收益利差，提供估值底部支撑。板块估值修复的核心正向催化主要来自三类基本面增量：海外零售物业资产价值上调、租金上调幅度超预期落地、可增厚单位派息的优质并购项目完成落地。

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