金吾财讯 | 美国劳工统计局最新公布的数据显示，美国2026年7月非农就业人数出现意外萎缩，较上月减少2.3万人，不仅远低于此前市场普遍预期的增长8万人，更逆转了前值增加2万人的势头，表明美国劳动力市场正在加速冷却。就业数据的意外疲软迅速引发固定收益市场剧烈震荡，美债收益率曲线全线下行。其中，对货币政策尤为敏感的2年期美国国债收益率（US2Y）应声大跌8个基点至4.16%，一举跌破50日均线，降至7月中旬以来的最低水平。基准10年期国债收益率（US10Y）下跌7个基点至4.60%；30年期国债收益率（US30Y）同步下行4个基点至5.17%。市场分析认为，非农数据的大幅不及预期进一步夯实了劳动力需求降温的证据。这一局面显著提升市场对美联储的降息预期，交易员普遍预计美联储在未来几个月内将拥有更大的政策弹性，以维持或进一步放松货币政策。
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