金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券表示，7月FOMC会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，美联储延续“观察—确认—调整”的政策节奏，未释放明确降息信号。6月PCE数据显示，美国通胀继续改善，能源价格回落推动整体价格压力缓解，但核心通胀仍高于2%的政策目标，服务价格黏性和消费韧性限制政策快速转向。当前美联储更加关注通胀回落的持续性以及货币政策框架调整后的有效性。短期内，维持限制性政策仍是基准情景，后续政策转向仍需更多通胀和就业数据确认。该机构认为，7月FOMC并未改变美联储“观察—确认—调整”的政策节奏。6月PCE数据显示通胀继续改善，但核心通胀仍高于目标，服务价格和需求韧性限制政策快速转向。短期内，美联储维持限制性政策仍是基准情景。从沃什政策框架看，美联储当前更关注货币政策长期可信度，而非短期市场预期管理。因此，未来政策路径仍将围绕“通胀是否真正回归、经济结构是否发生变化、政策框架如何调整”展开。
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