Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) released its 2026 Penfolds luxury wine brand collection for sale without any price increases, the first time this has happened since 2021, Jefferies said in an Aug. 6 note.

"Penfolds' brand health remains strong in each of its key markets, but lack of price growth is not a good sign for a luxury brand, particularly one with an established secondary market," the investment firm said.

Jefferies believes Penfolds took pricing too aggressively before the 2021 China tariffs and must now work through excess channel inventory before price hikes can be revisited.

Notably, Penfolds suspended shipments of Bin 407 in China, a move the equity research firm views as an effort to manage channel inventory, although weather events in key Cabernet regions may have impacted supply, it said.

Jefferies added that retailer discounts on release day were shallower than in 2025 and more consistent with historic levels, suggesting that wholesale pricing may be better.

The investment firm maintained a hold rating on Treasury Wine Estates with a price target of AU$5.

The company's shares gained 2% in recent Friday trade.