【机构:印尼央行第四季度可能加息】联昌国际将其对印尼央行利率的预期从按兵不动修正为第四季度加息25个基点,这反映出与厄尔尼诺现象相关的食品供应受干扰和能源价格高企带来的通胀风险。联昌国际分析师表示,2026年通胀率可能达到3.4%,接近印尼央行目标区间的上限。他们表示,财政空间预计将保持充足,因为较高的能源补贴带来的影响可能会在很大程度上被优先项目的削减和更强劲的财政收入所抵消。他们认为,因此占GDP 2.85%的财政赤字目标预计将保持不变,尽管下半年政府支出可能增加会带来上行风险。联昌国际补充道,增强的流动性激励措施应会缓解资金压力,但信贷传导可能依然有限,随着银行继续将过剩流动性配置于印尼央行证券。
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