日前，摩根大通交易部门警告称，周三公布的美国7月份CPI报告可能会使标普500指数当日上下波动高达2%。
由于CPI报告公布时间距离美联储9月政策会议仅几周，因此此次数据公布意义重大。
美联储主席凯文·沃什已明确表示，该央行对2%通胀目标的承诺是绝对的。
摩根大通提前推演了五种不同的反应情景。
其中，最有可能出现(概率高达40%)的结果是，核心通胀率在0.2%至0.25%之间，预计这将推动标普500指数上涨0.25%至0.75%。
同时，尾部风险也十分显著：核心CPI数据高于0.3%(概率仅为5%)可能引发1.5%至2.5%的股市抛售；而核心CPI数据低于0.15%(概率同样仅为5%)，却可能推动股市上涨1%至2%。
此外，如果核心通胀率在0.25%至0.3%之间(概率为25%)，标普500指数预计将下跌0.5%至1.25%；如果核心通胀率在0.15%至0.2%之间(概率同样为25%)，标普500指数预计将上涨0.5%至1%。
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