金吾财讯 | 光大证券研究指，《新型电力系统建设“十五五”规划》提出明确2030年初步建成清洁低碳、安全高效新型能源体系；其中对于火电而言，明确“十五五”正式切换为系统调节、兜底保供、应急备用定位，该机构认为火电收益模式由发电量盈利转向容量补偿、调峰辅助服务、电量收入三元结构趋势明确；新能源发电从以往的重点关注装机增量，逐渐向提升消纳水平、注重其发电盈利性转向。水、核井然有序持续发展；2030年常规水电、核电装机达到4.1亿千瓦、1.1亿千瓦左右。风险分析：权益市场系统性风险；上网电价超预期下行，煤价超预期上涨，用电需求下滑，水电来水不及预期；行业改革进度低于预期等。
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