德意志银行:市场已计入“近乎完美着陆”,几乎没有犯错空间

金吾财讯
Aug 11

金吾财讯 | 德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen发布警示,当前美股市场已经充分定价经济近乎完美软着陆的情景,但市场几乎没有预留容错空间,资产价格建立在较为脆弱的基本面之上。当前美股SPY、DIA、QQQ走势强劲,标普500指数刷新历史新高,企业盈利增长向好,信用利差维持低位;彭博美国金融状况指数来到1997年以来最为宽松的水平,7月美国失业率回落至4.1%,为13个月低点。不过市场预期和现实数据出现明显脱节,6月PCE通胀率达3.7%,但期货市场仅定价至12月美联储加息31个基点,到明年6月本轮周期加息峰值也仅有47个基点,经济强劲、通胀高于目标与有限加息预期之间存在矛盾。策略师引用历史规律,过去70年美联储加息节奏与CPI通胀高度相关,当前CPI为3.5%,按照历史趋势,仅第一年紧缩幅度就应超100个基点,2022年市场也曾低估美联储鹰派力度,后续累计加息525个基点。报告同时指出其他风险点,霍尔木兹海峡实际处于封锁状态,原油供给扰动风险仍存;AI带来供给侧改善的同时,也推升存储芯片等品类通胀压力,并非单纯利好通胀降温。机构提醒,一旦通胀再度反弹,美联储紧缩力度超预期,高估值市场将面临回调压力。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10