金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券研报指出，今年国内PPI走势基本由国际油价主导。7月国际油价经历6月下跌后强势反弹，布油一度突破100美元/桶，现于90美元/桶附近高位震荡，地缘成为原油定价核心变量，油价波动将对下半年PPI形成关键影响。
测算显示，布伦特油价环比每上涨10%，推升国内PPI环比约0.4个百分点，近六成压力将在次月释放。7月PPI环比降幅扩大至‑0.7%，主要是6月油价大跌的滞后影响；7月油价反弹将在8月PPI集中显现。当前全球原油库存处于历史低位，油价对供给冲击敏感度提升，下行空间受限。除原油外，AI产业链结构性涨价贡献当前PPI同比约2.3个百分点；专项债、超长期特别国债落地后，基建拖累有望9月至四季度边际缓解。
报告判断，7月PPI明显回落之后，下行趋势确定性并不高。若布油在85‑95美元/桶区间震荡，8‑9月PPI存在阶段性反弹压力，四季度随基数回落；若油价有序回落，PPI 8月企稳后逐步走低。高频数据显示当前内需偏弱、生产放缓。
报告提示风险：地缘局势存在不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期。
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