金吾财讯 | 中金最新研报指出，市场常常过度关注AI的岗位替代效应，却容易忽视AI会直接创造岗位，还会催生应对AI衍生风险的补救式就业，这类新增岗位存在时滞，统计难度较高。AI对美国就业主要体现为结构性冲击，总量扰动相对有限。测算显示，2026年AI推升美国失业率大概率低于0.3个百分点，2027年就业扰动或将边际放大，同时现有测算或高估AI负面影响，补救式等新增就业未能完整纳入统计。2026年7月美国非农数据走弱，但AI产业链上游就业仍保持改善。AI能够拉动美国GDP增速约四分之一，对通胀净影响温和，约0.2-0.3个百分点。结构上，AI更多冲击入门级、中端白领岗位，年轻、中低学历群体受影响更大，资深高学历人群反而可能受益。AI资本开支带动上游行业形成新增就业，能够对冲部分岗位替代的压力。报告认为，不必过度放大AI对美联储货币政策的直接影响。相比AI带来的就业通胀变化，美联储通胀工作小组的政策理念，才是影响美国货币政策走向更核心的因素。
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