金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，8月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《煤炭工业发展“十五五”规划》（以下简称《规划》），提出到2030年大型现代化煤矿产能比重提升至87%、智能化煤矿产能比例提升至75%，五大煤炭供应保障基地产量占全国比重超过80%，并推动煤炭消费实现达峰。该机构认为《规划》或将通过提升准入标准、优化产能结构、强化超产监管，推动煤炭供给端由增产保供进一步转向规范有序释放。在供给质量和行业集中度同步提升的大背景下，煤炭消费将实现稳步达峰，煤炭行业长期供需格局有望稳中向好，优质龙头的资源价值与盈利稳定性或将持续强化。风险因素：相关政策执行力度不及预期；先进产能投放或进口煤增长超预期；宏观经济及下游用煤需求低于预期；新能源替代速度超预期；安全生产事故扰动；煤炭价格调控政策力度超预期。
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