高盛顶级专家解读内存多空争论:涨价持续至2027年中 涨势却在放缓

格隆汇
Aug 11
高盛顶级科技专家Sean Johnstone在一份报告中指出,市场正在争论内存价格的上涨空间。多头一派认为,HBM和DRAM订单已排期到2027年,长期协议设定了价格底线,这代表着内存仍有70%至80%的利润空间。 空头则分析称,内存价格的“二阶导数”已经转负,意味着内存上涨的速度放缓,可能在明年第二季度或者第三季度达到峰值,并在晚些时候转向小幅下跌。此外,内存行业高达80%的利润率正在促使客户重新设计其芯片,这可能影响内存的供需平衡。此前消息称英伟达正在评估降低Rubin Ultra的HBM堆叠和容量,可能也印证了空头的这一看法。SemiAnalysis测算称,英伟达可能将单机架HBM内存的成本占比从接近40%压缩至28%。 高盛表示,保守的投资者已经将内存的市盈率从5倍下调至2至3倍。内存价格上涨仍将持续至2027年中期,但稀缺性阶段已经过去。剩余的价格上涨空间取决于长期协议会否大量新增产能,以及HBM的产能增长是否会抵消DRAM/NAND产能的任何正常化趋势。

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