霍尔木兹海峡出口持续受阻 IEA大幅下调今年全球石油需求预期

格隆汇
Aug 12
国际能源署(IEA)下调了今年全球石油需求预期,理由是霍尔木兹海峡出口持续受阻以及燃料价格维持高位。该机构预计2026年全球石油需求将下降156万桶/日,较上次预测多下降约51万桶/日,降至1.0329亿桶/日;预计二季度全球石油需求同比下降490万桶/日,并预计这一降幅将在当前季度收窄至280万桶/日,随后在四季度恢复增长,增幅约为58万桶/日。IEA假设美国与伊朗之间局势将缓和,预计未来几个月石油供应将逐步恢复;在此基础上,2027年全球石油需求将增长240万桶/日,达到1.057亿桶/日。IEA表示,霍尔木兹海峡运输恢复将使2026年全球供应量约430万桶/日的同比跌幅,转变为2027年830万桶/日的增幅。因此,全球石油市场预计将从2026年的130万桶/日供应缺口,转变为2027年的460万桶/日供应过剩。

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