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作者：王伟伟/F0257412、Z0001897/
一德期货有色金属分析师
2026年以来，尽管受中东地缘冲突、金价回调、美元阶段性升值等多重不利因素扰动，铜价依旧走出相对独立的强势行情。下文从多重因素共振支撑的角度，拆分驱动铜价上行的核心因素，便于读者理解本轮行情的内在逻辑。
矿端铜精矿TC处于深度负值区间，刚果（金）拟出台铜精矿出口限制政策，原料紧缺格局持续发酵。国内阳极铜供给收紧，叠加现货矿冶炼亏损，7‑8月电解铜产量同比下滑，冶炼端产能释放显著受限。非美地区库存持续去化，LME、SHFE社会库存维持偏低分位，实物端形成有力支撑。
市场博弈美国对精炼铜加征关税，该国精铜月度进口量维持高位，COMEX‑LME持续溢价，货源向美国集中，进一步加剧非美区域货源紧张。美国非农数据不及预期，加息预期有所降温，美元对铜价的压制边际缓和；国内稳增长政策持续托底，绿电、储能、算力赛道持续发力，贡献铜消费新增量。
风险方面，需重点警惕国内终端需求修复不及预期、海外政策转向、刚果（金）相关政策出现豁免或延期等变量。
新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障
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