金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2026年6月，印尼爪哇岛、马都拉岛及巴厘岛地区发生大范围停电，印尼政府初期将事件归因于技术故障，但印尼国家电力公司后续调查显示中热值煤炭供应短缺系核心原因。2026年8月4日，加里曼丹岛发生大面积停电。直接原因为阿萨姆燃煤电厂54兆瓦发电机组故障、两家IPP电厂锅炉及汽轮机管道泄漏，以及马来西亚进口电力因出口方技术问题中断，反映电网备用容量不足、峰值负荷调节高度依赖进口电力的结构性风险。该机构认为频繁出现的大规模停电事件将导致印尼进一步重视国内电力供应安全，强化DMO和煤炭出口政策管控，利好国际煤价并有望给我国国内动力煤价形成支撑。
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