ChainCatcher 消息，CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 发文表示，比特币当前波动率已压缩至极低水平，市场暂未形成明确方向。布林带宽度目前约为 3.8% 至 3.9%，处于过去两年低位之一，而 7 月初仍为两位数水平。其指出，布林带大幅收窄通常意味着市场进入波动扩张前的压缩阶段，但该指标本身无法判断下一轮行情方向。
趋势强度方面，比特币 ADX 指标目前降至 11，接近近年来低位，明显低于其模型用于确认趋势的 25 阈值。目前 TrendActive 仍未开启，牛市信号与熊市信号均未出现；7 月初最后一次方向信号为看跌，但当前市场结构已不再确认这一信号。Adler 表示，若市场要进入新的趋势阶段，需要看到布林带宽度从当前压缩状态重新扩大，同时 ADX 升破 25。随后可根据 +DI 与 -DI 的关系判断方向：若其中一方领先超过 5 个点，则可能触发对应的看涨或看跌信号。其认为，目前比特币仍处于盘整阶段，波动率和趋势强度均处低位，短期假突破风险仍然存在。当前结构提高了后续波动显著扩大的可能性，但尚无法判断价格最终向上还是向下突破。
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