“吉列猪排饭指数”显示日元被大幅低估,合理价应见62兑1美元

格隆汇
Aug 12
纽约梅隆银行高级策略师Geoff Yu以日本国民快餐咖喱吉列猪排饭的价格为基础,创建了“咖喱吉列猪排饭指数”(Katsu Curry Index)。此指标旨在作为《经济学人》“巨无霸指数”(Big Mac Index)的替代方案,以更贴地、准确地衡量日元的疲弱程度及其对民众的实际影响。 在外汇市场上,每美元兑日元目前约报159.39。不过,根据Yu以全球拥有约1500间分店的最大咖喱饭连锁店CoCo壹番屋的价格及购买力进行计算,日元的合理汇率应为每美元兑62.18日元,显示外汇市场大幅低估了日元的价值。相比之下,传统的“巨无霸指数”则显示每美元应可兑换80.30日元。 Yu强调,若要让日本的购买力向高收入国家看齐,“咖喱吉列猪排饭指数”反映日元需要大幅升值。他并警告,若日元弱势导致国内餐饮消费变得难以负担,未来恐将引发更大的政策调整呼声。

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