【券商聚焦】华创证券首予鸣鸣很忙（01768）强推评级指飞轮效应驱动增长

金吾财讯

Aug 11

金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，鸣鸣很忙（01768）作为量贩零食行业龙头，其核心投资逻辑在于“前端快乐引流，后端效率降本”的飞轮效应驱动高质量增长，远期链主价值凸显。

报告认为，公司前端通过双IP矩阵、代言人联动及主题门店体验，将品牌升维为“贩卖快乐的场景”，并凭借严格选址和AI巡店等数字化运营体系，维持1.2%的极低闭店率，保障加盟生态健康。后端则通过直连厂商、现款现货（应付账期仅8天）构建优质供应商生态，结合高效仓配（存货周转天数13天）和“漏斗型”选品机制，持续挤压成本并提升坪效。基于经营效率的持续优化与规模效应的释放，华创证券预计公司盈利能力将稳步提升，自有品牌亦有序培育。

研报预测，2026-2028年公司经调整后净利润分别为43.7亿、63.2亿及80.2亿元人民币，对应市盈率约16、11、9倍。门店扩张方面，报告测算未来门店可看4-5万家，较当前仍有翻倍空间，并有望在社区零售市场中持续获取份额，强化产业链链主地位。华创证券首次覆盖鸣鸣很忙，给予“强推”评级，目标价580港元。该目标价基于2026年经调整后净利润约25倍市盈率得出，认为公司处于盈利释放期且具备稀缺的产业链地位，当前估值仍被低估。

主要风险包括门店扩张或盈利释放不及预期、行业竞争加剧及解禁减持冲击等。

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