金吾财讯 | 广发证券研究指，复盘6月下旬以来AI板块调整，认为本轮回撤并非产业趋势逆转，而是高估值、高杠杆与AI资本回报率重估共同触发的阶段性出清。7月末以来，AI板块已出现初步企稳迹象。企稳背后，三条新叙事正在重塑AI定价。第一，市场不再单纯惩罚云厂商高CapEx和自由现金流恶化，而是转向奖励收入、订单和利润兑现。第二，云厂商CapEx上修重新成为产业链利好，缓解了市场对芯片、通信连接和存储订单放缓的担忧。第三，虽然2027-2028年传统云厂商CapEx增速可能回落，但模型商和新云厂商的推理需求乃至新增的RSI训练需求，有望成为下一阶段算力投资的重要接力来源。该机构认为，Agent向RSI突破的迭代需求可能成为下一阶段AI投资的主线逻辑。RSI逻辑的核心在于，AI能力提升可能同时带来“训练需求扩张”和“应用需求打开”两条主线。总体看，RSI为AI投资提供了从“算力再扩张”到“需求再创造”的新叙事。AI板块可能形成第一个阶段性顶部，但这不是产业周期终点。后续主线或沿着“硬件→云厂商→模型商→应用”继续轮动。重点关注云厂商资本开支能否持续转化为收入和利润、模型商是否出现更明确的商业化和盈利迹象，以及应用端能否诞生具备用户规模、留存和付费能力的现象级产品。
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