金吾财讯 | 光大证券研究指，航空暑运需求韧性延续，“十五五”规划强化行业中长期改善基础。1）26年暑运前39天，民航平均票价为851元，较25年同期-0.2%，较19年同期-6.5%，出行量较25年同期+4.7%，较19年同期+18.1%，票价跌幅边际收窄，出行量持续走高。该机构认为，随着8月进入暑运高峰，叠加燃油费下调，预计出行需求保持韧性，关注票价修复进程。2）8月国内航空煤油出厂价环比下滑6%至7581元/吨，航油成本压力有望缓解。3）民航局、国家发改委、交通运输部联合印发《民用航空发展“十五五”规划》，强调国内统一大市场建设，确保推动民航实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。中长期看，航空供给维持低增速，供需改善及“反内卷”政策有望支撑客座率和盈利中枢上行。
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