金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，科技史上规模最大的资本开支周期正加速展开。微软、亚马逊、谷歌（Alphabet）、Meta以及甲骨文五大科技厂商持续扩大AI基础设施投入，引发市场对投入可持续性的关注与讨论。而在此高速扩张阶段，甲骨文遭遇评级下调的事件，表明AI投入与业绩兑现间的时滞正随着债务本息和租金等刚性支出增加而转化为信用压力。因此，从信用视角审视资本开支对企业融资、现金流与长期经营的影响，将为理解本轮资本开支周期提供新的视角。综合本轮美国资本开支浪潮中AI基础设施投资厂商的基本面变化及风险暴露，资本开支带来的增长与风险并非取决于投入规模本身，而在于企业能否在“投入—资产形成—收益兑现”的完整链条中管理好资金投入与现金回流间的期限错配。若新增现金流能够及时覆盖前期投入及后续固定支出，杠杆压力有望逐步消化，若兑现时点后移或现金转化效率不及预期，资金缺口将延续，并通过债务扩张和固定付款负担上升传导至信用波动。
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