160关口前多空博弈加剧:交易员紧盯日本央行加息信号,日元小幅上涨

智通财经
Aug 14

智通财经APP注意到,随着市场对日本央行可能在未来几个月加息的猜测不断升温,日元走强。

周五,日元兑美元汇率一度上涨 0.2% 至 159.15,脱离了交易员密切关注的 160 关口,此前市场担心触及该关口可能引发政府干预以支撑日元。

媒体周四引述知情人士报道称,为了应对日元走软,首相高市早苗领导的政府支持日本央行在近期加息,下一次动作很可能在 9 月或 10 月。周五的一份报道则表示,日本央行最早正在考虑于 9 月加息。

由于投资者开始重新建立以日元为融资货币的套利交易,日元已吐出了上个月美日联合干预后的绝大部分涨幅。日本与其他主要经济体之间巨大的利差,以及对该国财政前景的持续担忧,继续对日元施加压力。

隔夜指数掉期显示,日本央行在 9 月前加息的概率约为 80%,而 10 月的加息动作已被市场充分计入定价中。

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