牛津经济研究院:减税代价浮现,日本基础财政赤字或扩大至GDP的3%

格隆汇
Aug 14
牛津经济研究院表示,日本削减食品消费税的计划将扩大财政赤字,并推高日本国债收益率。经济学家Norihiro Yamaguchi在报告中写道,模型测算显示,减税将使日本每年税收收入减少约5万亿日元,而这部分收入损失将很难通过其他方式弥补。该机构预计,部分税收损失将通过非税收入和削减支出来弥补,但假设其中一半将通过举债融资。该机构预计,日本基础财政赤字将恶化至GDP的3%,随后随着债务占GDP比重上升、财政整顿力度加大,基础财政赤字将自2029年起逐步改善。牛津经济研究院预计,到2026年底,日本长期国债收益率将升至约3%,而非维持在2.8%左右。尽管目前债券市场的反应较为有限,但牛津经济研究院认为,随着更多政策细节浮出水面,市场将开始逐步计入减税对财政状况的影响。

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