【地缘局势重塑定价逻辑 大宗商品“新均衡”进行时】随着霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁，截至8月14日记者发稿时，NYMEX WTI原油期货主力合约站上82美元/桶，现货黄金报4342.95美元/盎司，而工业金属铜、铝、锌今年以来在矿端供给约束下轮番走强。地缘局势影响正在不断加深，在大宗商品市场面临新均衡的背景下，原油、黄金、工业金属的交易逻辑也有所变化。川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳表示，当前地缘局势由“扰动变量”升级为“定价核心”，重塑大宗商品交易逻辑。黄金的避险与储备配置价值进一步凸显，原油易受产区、航运通道扰动而抬升风险溢价，铜、铝等基本金属因叠加供应链安全考量，战略溢价有所抬升。传统经济周期框架、供需框架解释力有所弱化，消息驱动下价格呈非线性波动。观察市场，既要跟踪供需、货币等传统因子，更要重视地缘局势对供给、贸易流通的冲击，理性甄别风险溢价，客观把握品种结构性分化，防范极端事件带来的市场波动风险。
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