零售数据疲软打压加息预期 短期美债应声上涨

格隆汇
Aug 14
短期限美国国债上涨,因7月零售销售数据疲软进一步削弱了市场对美联储未来几个月加息的预期——而基于就业和通胀数据,加息预期本已摇摇欲坠。涨幅一度将美国两年期国债收益率推低至4.10%下方,创6月30日以来最低。涨势仅限于对美联储政策前景变化更为敏感的短期限债券,10年至30年期收益率当日小幅走高。“这是一份关于消费者整体健康状况的令人不安的更新,”BMO资本市场美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen表示。“这将为美联储下月暂停加息提供理由。”利率显示对美联储利率决策预期的短期利率合约表明,交易员正在撤出对9月会议加息以及到2027年中期加息超过一次的押注。美联储紧缩预期的消退在过去一周加速,始于8月7日7月就业数据弱于预期,并在本周因7月消费者和生产者价格数据温和而延续。

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