大华银行分析师Alvin Liew阐述了7月美国CPI数据公布后对联邦基金利率的预期。市场对9月加息的定价已下降,大华银

智通财经
Aug 13
大华银行分析师Alvin Liew阐述了7月美国CPI数据公布后对联邦基金利率的预期。市场对9月加息的定价已下降,大华银行的基本情景是延长暂停至2026年全年。该行预计2027年将有两次25个基点的降息,使联邦基金利率在2027年底逐步降至约3.25%:“我们继续维持基本情景,即美联储在2026年剩余时间保持暂停,然后在2027年恢复宽松周期,可能在2027年第二季度末和第四季度末各降息25个基点。在此情景下,联邦基金目标利率预计在2026年底前保持不变,然后逐步下降至2027年底的3.25%,这仍是我们对终端联邦基金利率的估计。虽然6月和7月CPI报告后我们FOMC展望的风险已更为平衡,但由于地缘政治和能源相关不确定性,风险仍略微偏向上行,因此我们对政策紧缩不可忽视的风险保持警惕。”。

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